Odds or Optimism?

Many fans have begun to prepare their survival rafts, setting seas to the most appealing boat to pass by to save their fandom. Most of which were set upon this course by the hiring of Doug Collins. With the crys of "here we go again" ringing through Chicago amongst the pessimistic crowd. Apparently because Collins is old (but woke) and doesn't believe in analytics, he is inept. Yet this perception has been cast mainly by those who have yet to even live as long as Doug has been in the professional basketball world. I for one feel someone with personal ties to the organization since the beginning of his coaching career is something that is needed. Who's opinions do you personally trust more? A long time friend? Or a numbers nerd who would've told you to take Beasley over Rose in 2008? I'll take the guy with balls big enough to speak his mind DIRECTLY to John Paxson. Bulls fans wanted change in the front office. It may not be the firing of Gar Forman that the vast majority are calling for. But it is another voice in the room, someone who once coached John Paxson. Someone who coached the GOAT (MJ) not only at the beginning of his career, but at the end. Collins is someone who isn't taking the title of advisor lightly. He's from Illinois, he loves the gratitude Chicagoans give him for his past services. If you think this man is putting his name on a title that would jeopardize that standing you're mistaken.

Now that we've covered the recent stirs of the pot, let's focus on the future. We all know the Bulls likely could've pulled off the Butler trade without sacrificing their own first round pick. But we were also not on the secretive third line of this trade negotiation phone call. For being put into the corner of desperation, with all standbys fully aware of the situation. We did pretty damn good. We traded into the best draft class since 2003, while potentially hitting the biggest steal in the draft at #7. Anyone who is still wishing the Bulls grabbed Dennis Smith Jr. instead of Markkanen are throwing logic aside. You do not base the future of your franchise on an athletic guard with ACL injury history. We've been there and done that with the youngest MVP in league history (Rose), who had a clean bill of health when he was drafted. If you're watching the league closely it is not hard to determine its direction. SHOOTING. We landed the best long range shooter in this draft class, who happens to be seven foot tall.

(The so called "soft" 7ft marksman, Lauri Markkanen"

Being skeptical of Lauri on draft night myself, after being focused on the top five picks and locking in on De'Aaron Fox with either a deal involving the 76er's at #3 prior to the trade or Boston after. The potential of "The Kraken" was downplayed by most draft analysts, talking more about how "soft" and one dimensional he was, instead of his strengths. It took me less than an hour to find comfort in our selection. Which Lauri put an exclamation mark on in the FIBA tournament, out averaging the "Unicorn" (Porzingis). Showing potential on both ends of the floor, as the go to guy in the clutch and the team defensive key for Finland. Markkanen showed he can not only live above the criticism, but excel in the face of it. If this 20 year old is soft, I am single ply toilet paper that has been soaked in the rain. Comparing this young man to Dirk is unfair, as Nowitzki is a NBA legend. But to understate this young mans potential would also be a mistake on your part. 

(#5 overall pick 2016-17, Kris Dunn)

The concerns for many, are heavy here. How can we put faith into the most recently traded for point guard prospect, after trading for Payne? Dunn was highly touted by many recruits as a front runner for the Rookie of the Year award within his draft class. Before running into the rookie killer Tom Thibodeau, only playing seventeen minutes per game behind Ricky Rubio. He definitely had a season to forget after posting the lowest true shooting percentage in the league. But Kris is no stranger to adversity, he improved his averages year by year in college, working his way into the top five of the 2016 draft class. From only averaging 5.7 points per game to 16.4 in his senior year. With nearly a 6'10 wing span at 6'4, Dunn brings the kind of killer instinct to the game you cannot teach. With many highly skilled guards in the league, he contributes the kind of defensive prowess that could prove to be highly beneficial in the long run. The ability to man up the opposing teams best guard or even small forward is something most point guards lack in today's game. His biggest draw back is his overall shooting potential. But have no fear, even veterans such as Rondo and Wade posted their best three point percentages of their careers under Fred Hoiberg. Dunn by no means has to evolve into a dead-eye marksman to excel at the NBA level, his playmaking and unmatched effort should propel him into talks as the most improved player in the NBA this year as is. Defensive minded players have a tendency to improve their game in all aspects yearly, as developing a more consistent shot is much easier than implanting killer defensive instincts. With an already unmatched mental drive and an open door to solidify himself as the actual point guard of the future for this team, Kristofer Michael Dunn should excite you. Being a four year college player does make Dunn an older prospect, but as defensive prospects like Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler have proved in recent memory. The college level projected ceiling, is not always a fair early assessment. Dunn has the potential to be both floor general and defensive stopper for this young rebuilding team. Developing a consistent shot from the outside and refining his finishing ability around the rim would only be icing on the cake for his true point guard potential. 

The final player received from the Butler trade, is recognized by most as the center piece of the trade and potential future of the Bulls. Disappointment would be an understatement to convey my initial disapproval of an injury riddled player on the last year of his contract as the great hope for the Bulls future. With an expiring contract, the original thoughts of mine were to trade Lavine to acquire more assets and focus on getting Euro League protege Luka Doncic in the draft as his much more cost effective replacement. But Lavine is cut from the cloth of those who refuse to give up, regardless of the mountain to climb. Although my intial judgement may have been focused on maintaining optimal cap space moving forward, instead of giving a max like contract to an injured athlete with minimal time to prove himself. The potential Zach has as the number one scoring option for this team, along with his strong character are impossible things to ignore. LaVine has reportedly improved his vertical jump as well as his speed bursts from his draft combine while recovering. Making the promise of a strong return to the court likely, after his timely injury hindered his rising potential, even as the third option behind KAT and Wiggins in Minnesota. Zach managed to make dropping 40 points in a game look like busisness as usual last year prior to his setback. This young man is hungry to not only prove he can overcome this injury, but put to rest the skeptical outlook on his leading role capabilities. Lavine has had several explosive offensive performances in his young career. With the ability to drop seven three point shots in a game which he did twice prior to his injury last year, he also possesses elite athleticism in which he hopefully has full trust in upon his return. Even with the recent buyout of Dwade freeing up the shooting guard position for LaVine, do not expect the Bulls to push him onto the floor as early as possible. Being cautious with this recovering athlete doesn't only protect him long term, but keeps the odds makers projections of the Bulls finishing dead last in the standings realistic. While we would all love to see production from him to solidify his upcoming contract extension, by keeping Zach off the floor the Bulls can potentially get him on a cheaper deal while preserving their worst team in the league role this year. LaVine is estimated to be ready for full contact in November, after clearing up his statement of feeling good enough for opening day with "I was just letting people (Chicagoans) know I feel good". With a season worth losing ahead, forcing him back to the floor would be the wrong path for not only his health, but the unspoken common goal of the worst record in the league.

(Denzel Valentine and Bobby Portis with the Summer League Championship just a year ago)

Having three new arrivals, many have forgotten about or home grown prospects. Who showed potential in their own right, even being stuck behind their now departed predecessors. With the trade of Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott prior to the trade deadline, the Bulls didn't tank into the lottery as hoped. But both Valentine and Portis contributed on the path to the playoffs in extended roles. Although Denzel didn't see much playoff time, Bobby managed to show enough of his potential to steal the Bulls a road victory against the top seed Celtics in the first round of the playoffs. DO NOT take either of these gentlemen for granted. Despite being an end of the lottery pick (Denzel) in a mediocre class and a late first round pick that fell on draft night to #22 (BP), the Bulls managed what many teams outside of the top five achieve. They hit on at the very least two role players who will be in this league for years to come. Both of which could drastically improve, with continued guaranteed minutes this season. Denzel was injury riddled the whole season but still managed to prove his long range abilities, that should be expanded on this year. As well as a more prominent playmaking role, similar to what he contributed to Michigan St. in his college career. Portis had been stuck as the third power forward on the depth chart behind the hard hat lunch pal, Taj Gibson and the March phenom Nikola Mirotic. But as history will prove a willing and able mentor can propel a willing listener to great lengths. To think Bobby didn't benefit from a team and fan favorite like Taj in his time here would be simply dumbfounding. Portis offers a similar kind of energy that fuels a teams momentum like only so few recent Bulls have. With a more prominent role on this team, look for BP to improve his shot selection. As casting up every possible shot at the rim will no longer be the last chance he will have for the night. 

The belief that the Bulls are not focused on "young and athletic" prospects is further busted in their wise offseason moves. Signing Antonio Blakeney from the Summer League roster to the first two-way contract in franchise history was another step towards investing in young promising players. Blakeney who showed determination to prove himself, as well as further proof of his worth in his numbers throughout Summer League play to solidify his position. As every true fan watched our hopes of reclaiming the "irrelevant" offseason title of Summer League Champions slip away, with several key young players suffering minor injuries or bowing out due to family related isssues. Blakeney kept every fan fully attentive, as he took a confident step forward, proving once again that undrafted prospects are more than relevant to an offseason of improvements. If his performances didn't warrant enough thought, Bulls Twitter roared in approval of giving the young man a fair shot to become a member of our young developing team. Our front office was not done there, they signed an early 2nd round pick (40th overall Clippers pick) from the previous draft to a partially guaranteed contract. Diamond Stone was once at the top of the prospect list in his draft class, the still 20 year old big man showed plenty of promise in his college career at Maryland as well as his stints with several D-League teams last year. Stone expanded his game upon entering the NBA, showing his ability to step out to the three point line as an added attribute to his game (averaged two 3pta per game). Diamond may be the unrefined stone to fill the Bulls Center position in the future. With a little confidence and structure to refine his already great potential, the organization decided to take a chance on the 6'11 big man, who I feel will surpass Felicio on the depth chart in the next few years. Stone doesn't lack the basketball knowledge or athleticism to become a successful Center in the NBA. With a young developing team Stone should fit right into the plan, especially if the Bulls receive tempting offers for Robin Lopez from contenders in search of a beyond reliable big man at the trade deadline.

(The man who doesn't age, Head Coach Fred Hoiberg)

While Fred's first two years in Chicago were beyond unfriendly, but Fred managed to not go grey haired at all. Hoiberg was delt a troublesome hand upon his arrival. Between expectations of more deep playoff runs being expected from the first year coach, we saw the opposite. The Bulls missed the playoffs in Fred's first year of a hand me down roster, that was the complete opposite of the system he runs. The Bulls front office lended him no helping hands in his second year either, trading away a "3 and D" guy like Tony Snell (who never saw consistency in his stay in Chicago) or trading away Dougie McBuckets along with the hardest working player on the team in Taj Gibson. Fred encountered the egos of several players who saw him as a peer more than a leader. Multiple times in his first two years Fred was called out on his lack of firm criticism by the veteran players who were accustomed to the constant instruction of Tom Thibodeau. Clearly butting heads with the too knowledgeable for his own good Rajon Rondo, Fred was forced into a role of trying to control veterans with championship experience by treating them the only way he knows as a former college coach, DNP's. While Rondo and Fred seemed to finally begin seeing eye to eye towards the end of the season, Hoibergs veteran problems didn't end with the savy veteran Rajon. But also his star player and other championship veteran, Butler and Wade decided to take the accountability of their young teammates into their own hands publicly. Conspiring against your head coach regardless of his experience is never a wise choice, as well Wade and Butler are both gone now. Fred may have had a rough start and a group of players who felt his advice was unworthy or not demonstrative enough. But Fred now has a roster of young men that will show respect instead of resentment towards his calm demeanor. The Bulls front office showed their affirmation for the job the young coach has done so far by selecting the best shooter in the 2017 NBA Draft. Giving Fred a versatile piece in his rotation for atleast the rest of his initial contract, with the promise of more players who fit into less of an isolation style of play. Hoibergs greatest weakness the past two years may have been his lack of commitment to a solidified group of players. Luckily this year Fred's plug and play system is exactly what fans should hope for. With one of the youngest teams in the league and a system conducive of success in the current NBA, Fred is the perfect fit for this overdue rebuild. He has the ability to motivate talented young men to the max of their potential, while his soft spoken nature didn't fair well with proven veterans in need of constant criticism to stay at the top of their game. His understanding approach and minimal screaming are what young developmental prospects need. Being too hard on or overworking players not used to a drill sergeant approach can be detrimental to a young players career. Fred may not have been the man for the continuation of playoff showings, but with his two years of sponging up knowledge on how things work in this league. He should be the perfect coach for building a cultural foundation like he built at Iowa State before taking Hoiball to the NBA.

Criticize the front office all you want, "Run From Us" rather than #RunWithUs. I'll cast no judgements as many teams made very productive moves this offseason, including Minnesota who has too many ex Bulls under Thibs for it to be coincidental. Just know by revoking your membership, you're quite possibly passing on the next culturally well built team that will stand ready to contend as the "Super Team" era diminishes. Did the Bulls wait too long to rebuild, or did they wait just long enough? Trading into the best draft class since 2003, as well as positioning themselves for the last heavily odds favored draft, that just may be even better than last years. Also whilst setting themselves up with ample cap space for the upcoming offseasons, all the bad trades and money hungry moves may prove valiant. With Paxson apparently stepping back into the forefront of the picture, a short leash on the controversial Gar Forman and addition of a trusted advisor who has witnessed greatness first hand from start to finish in Doug Collins. I choose to stand firm, not that any amount of years of failure could ever force me to jump ship. But simply because the Bulls are rebuilding a culture of dedicated, strong charactered young men with plenty of potential. Let the media trash our franchises future potential, I will continue to put faith in the players who wear the iconic jersey of our beloved team. It alone carries enough weight to make future All-Stars out of average young men, while also weeding out the weak who cannot hold the weight of its meaning. I hope you join me, but if you do leave for currently greener grass, do all of us true fans a favor. Don't turn back.